The Stockdale Paradox

The Stockdale Paradox

Admiral Jim Stockdale was the highest-ranking military officer in the Hanoi Hilton. He was there for, I think, seven years, from 1968 to 1974. He was tortured over twenty times. And by his own account, Stockdale came out of the prison camp even stronger than he went in.

In preparation for a day I got to spend with Jim Stockdale, I read his book In Love and War. As I read this book, I found myself getting depressed because it seemed like his systemic constraints were so severe, and there was never going to be any end to it. His captors could come in any day and torture him. He had no sense of whether, or if, he would ever get out of the prison camp. Absolutely depressing situation. It’s like we can all survive anything as long as we know it will come to an end, we know when, and we have a sense of control. He had none of that.

Then all of a sudden it dawned on me, “Wait a minute, I’m getting depressed reading this book, and I know the end of the story. I know he gets out. I know he reunites with his family. I know he becomes a national hero. And I even know that we’re going to have lunch on the beautiful Stanford campus on Monday. How did he not let those oppressive circumstances beat him down? How did he not get depressed?” And I asked him.

He said, “Well, you have to understand, it was never depressing. Because despite all those circumstances, I never ever wavered in my absolute faith that not only would I prevail—get out of this—but I would also prevail by turning it into the defining event of my life that would make me a stronger and better person. Not only that, Jim, you realize I’m the lucky one.”

I said, “No, I don’t.”

He said, “Yes, because I know the answer to how I would do, and you never will.”

A little later in the conversation, after I’d absorbed that and said nothing for about five minutes because I was just stunned, I asked him who didn’t make it out of those systemic circumstances as well as he had.

He said, “Oh, it’s easy. I can tell you who didn’t make it out. It was the optimists.”

And I said, “I’m really confused, Admiral Stockdale.”

He said, “The optimists. Yes. They were the ones who always said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ Christmas would come and it would go. And there would be another Christmas. And they died of a broken heart.” Then he grabbed me by the shoulders and he said, “This is what I learned from those years in the prison camp, where all those constraints just were oppressive. You must never ever ever confuse, on the one hand, the need for absolute, unwavering faith that you can prevail despite those constraints with, on the other hand, the need for the discipline to begin by confronting the brutal facts, whatever they are. We’re not getting out of here by Christmas.”

https://www.jimcollins.com/media_topics/TheStockdaleParadox.html

Publishers Not Making Much Money From Apple News+

MacRumors, quoting Business Insider:

Multiple publishers have been unimpressed with the revenue generated from Apple News+. One told Business Insider that revenue was one twentieth of what Apple promised, while another said that it was on par with what was earned from Texture, which isn’t much.

I can understand why this is – when Apple launches a new service, it anecdotally feels that paid adoption is slow until there is a tipping point in perceived value.  I enjoy Apple News+ so I hope this doesn’t have any negative consequences to the service.

Infographic of Star Wars Episode IV

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far, away… is surprisingly just as thrilling in an infographic as it is on the big screen.

Maritn Panchaud spent over 1000 hours in Adobe Illustrator CC to produce an infographic of Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope.

One story in one piece of 123 meters length. An adaptation of Star Wars Episode IV in a style that was inspired by infographics.

High praise from Mark Hamill, Luke Skywalker himself:

This is absolutely STUNNING! 1st time I’ve”watched” StarWars since the ’97 SpecialEdition & well worth it! GR8Job

Empire Strikes Back is in progress…

The Tudor Black Bay GMT

Whoa. I had a feeling that new Rolex GMT’s were going to be introduced this year at Baselworld 2018, but I had no idea Tudor would do the same.

For me, the Rolex GMT (particularly the 16710) occupies one-half of my watch holy grail. That is to say that this watch, combined with another, make up the center pieces and collecting goals of my watch obsession. I have one of those, which is an original Rolex Submariner date ceramic. Now the other might be replaced by the all new Tudor Black Bay GMT. I have been drawn to that two-tone, red / blue color combination ever since I became serious about watches. It started with my first “real” watch purchase: a Japanese domestic market Seiko SKX-009J1. The problem I have had is finding a quality Rolex 16710 on the secondary market at the right price. The 2nd hand and vintage watch markets have been out of control for the past few years. Which is a good thing! But every day, it prices us mere mortals out of the market one dollar at a time.

These 2 new GMT’s from Rolex and Tudor fix that to some degree. The Rolex, which cost prohibitive, is now going to have catalogue and somewhat limited dealer availability similar to the Rolex BLNR GMT (the Batman). There will be a strong grey-market presence too. While I think I prefer the matte bezel for the GMT, it’s now an option (albeit an expensive one) to buy a new and truly modern two-tone red / blue GMT with all of the watchmaking technology and manufacturing advances that make my Submariner one of the best and most watches in the world.

Enter the Tudor GMT. Low cost point? Check. Red / blue matte GMT bezel? Check. Rolex manufacturing & QC? Check. Size and wrist presence? Ruh-roh…

My problem with the modern Tudor line is the meaty-ness of the case. The Black Bay line and the Submariner *I believe* are the same thickness. The modern sub is significantly more thicker than the modern GMT. Yet Rolex skirts any wrist presence issue by having a case back that graduates the slope thickness from the center point to the edge of the watch case. Tudor does not do this. I was also interested in the Black Bay Chronograph last year, but was not immediately thrilled by it’s wrist presence. When the Tudor GMT is released later this year, I’ll need to properly put it through a few wrist checks at the dealer before I commit.

Here is Hodinkee’s First Take video on the new Tudor Black Bay GMT.

Fender American Elite Precision Bass

I’ve decided that I want to start playing bass guitar as a new hobby to add to life. The plan in my head right now is to pick up a bass, practice for a few weeks, then sign up for the next Blues Band Live! session at the Old Town School of Folk Music. One of the styles of bass that I’m leaning towards heavily is a Fender Precision Bass or “P” Bass. Here is a great demo of one from the Chicago Music Exchange:

McCabe fired just prior to retirement

From the Washington Post:

Michael R. Bromwich, McCabe’s attorney, said in a lengthy statement responding to the allegations that he had “never before seen the type of rush to judgment — and rush to summary punishment — that we have witnessed in this case.” He cited in particular President Trump’s attacks on McCabe on Twitter and the White House press secretary’s comments about him on Thursday — which he said were “quite clearly designed to put inappropriate pressure on the Attorney General to act accordingly.”

What a dick move; the plot thickens.

Theme Update

As fun as the previous theme was (see my first post), it wasn’t really made to last. Time to tinker around with another one and see if I can get it to where I want it to be.